Ongoing Rotation Speculation

Starters appear to have been named through Saturday. Buck could skip Gallardo and go to Ubaldo on normal rest, but he elects to stick with Gallardo and give us effectively a six man rotation for now. That will give Ubaldo and Tillman both an extra day of rest, which seems like a good idea.

The question is what to do with Miley's slot on 9/18. Buck could skip him and go to Bundy on normal rest, but Bundy more than anyone seems to need an extra day. Gausman on short rest would be a possibility, but he just threw 120 pitches vs BOS. I think the least bad option is one of Miley, Worley, or Wilson. Fortunately TB is not a must-win and is a pretty light hitting lineup, so maybe we can get away with one of those guys.

That would then set us up with Bundy and Gausman to start the BOS series. For the third game we could skip Gallardo and go with Ubaldo and Tillman if those are must-win games. This would line us up as follows:

9/15 TB Gallardo (extra rest)

9/16 TB Ubaldo (extra rest)

9/17 TB Tillman (extra rest)

9/18 TB Wilson?

9/19 BOS Bundy (extra rest)

9/20 BOS Gausman (extra rest)

9/21 BOS Ubaldo (normal rest)

9/22 BOS Tillman (normal rest)

Honestly, I hope Buck doesn't even consider, not for one second, letting Miley near the mound the rest of the season - unless it is mop up duty. I would look to give Worley a spot start and hope he can give you 5 IP.

Starters appear to have been named through Saturday. Buck could skip Gallardo and go to Ubaldo on normal rest, but he elects to stick with Gallardo and give us effectively a six man rotation for now. That will give Ubaldo and Tillman both an extra day of rest, which seems like a good idea.

The question is what to do with Miley's slot on 9/18. Buck could skip him and go to Bundy on normal rest, but Bundy more than anyone seems to need an extra day. Gausman on short rest would be a possibility, but he just threw 120 pitches vs BOS. I think the least bad option is one of Miley, Worley, or Wilson. Fortunately TB is not a must-win and is a pretty light hitting lineup, so maybe we can get away with one of those guys.

That would then set us up with Bundy and Gausman to start the BOS series. For the third game we could skip Gallardo and go with Ubaldo and Tillman if those are must-win games. This would line us up as follows:

9/15 TB Gallardo (extra rest)

9/16 TB Ubaldo (extra rest)

9/17 TB Tillman (extra rest)

9/18 TB Wilson?

9/19 BOS Bundy (extra rest)

9/20 BOS Gausman (extra rest)

9/21 BOS Ubaldo (normal rest)

9/22 BOS Tillman (normal rest)

For that hole on the 18th vs. TB, I'd try to piece together a couple innings each from Hunter, Worley, Drake and Wilson. Put MIley in the mix if we're ahead or behind by more than 5.

Just say no to wade Miley as a starter.

Come on Buck, you can kick this habit, we all have faith in you!

One more start for Miley or Worly. 17 games left. I would go 6 man one more time then go 5 man next three times. That would give Gausman last game of year if needed or one game playoff if not needed the last Sunday.

9/19 BOS Bundy (extra rest)

9/20 BOS Gausman (extra rest)

9/21 BOS Ubaldo (normal rest)

9/22 BOS Tillman (normal rest)

The main thing is to set those four pitchers up for the Boston series.

Any chance we can pluck a decent starter from another team for a few starts to continue to give Bundy extra rest? I know they wouldn't be available for the postseason, but I think it's probably something that Dan has considered.

Honestly, I hope Buck doesn't even consider, not for one second, letting Miley near the mound the rest of the season - unless it is mop up duty. I would look to give Worley a spot start and hope he can give you 5 IP.

Well said, the Orioles afford to let Miley anywhere near the mound.

Gotta be Worley. His numbers vs. TB are respectable.....Wilson's are horrible.

Great post. By my calculations, if they want to get Bundy 5 days of rest, they need a 6th starter two more times - 9/18 vs TB and 9/24 vs AZ. That would also set up Bundy/Gausman/Ubaldo/Tillman vs. Boston and Gausman/Jimenez/Tillman at Toronto. It would also make Gausman available for the season finale if necessary with Tillman available for a one-game playoff.

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Great post. By my calculations, if they want to get Bundy 5 days of rest, they need a 6th starter two more times - 9/18 vs TB and 9/24 vs AZ. That would also set up Bundy/Gausman/Ubaldo/Tillman vs. Boston and Gausman/Jimenez/Tillman at Toronto. It would also make Gausman available for the season finale if necessary with Tillman available for a one-game playoff.

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Correct, that is my thinking as well. We would be able to start our top 4 against BOS, then push Gallardo to start the AZ series. We would end up with Gallardo and the 6th starter against AZ, but if there are any games we can afford to lose it would be those. With the off day on 9/26 we would then have some options to set the rotation for the Jays and Yanks.

AZ series would be as follows:

9/23 AZ Gallardo (extra rest after being skipped vs BOS)

9/24 AZ Miley/Worley/Wilson?

9/25 AZ Bundy (extra rest)

9/26 OFF

9/27 TOR Gausman (extra rest)

9/28 TOR Ubaldo (extra rest) [alt: Tillman on normal rest, skipping Ubaldo]

9/29 TOR Tillman (extra rest) [alt: Gallardo on normal rest]

Miley will start against Tampa. Too embarrassing to Dan and the FO to pull him out of the rotation in a pennant race - especially against a lightweight offense he's got good career numbers. If it was the Sox or some team he's been brutal against in his career - there'd be a way for Buck to spin it. But his career numbers are good vs TB - and they suck. It's a huge admission of failure by the FO for him not to make that start. He either comes down with a "mystery injury" between now and then to provide the necessary cover for removing him - or he takes the ball.

Seeing a formidable future of a 1-2-3 starting rotation consisting of Tillman, Gausman and Bundy makes me scratch my head as to why fans would be so interested in giving away MLB's top closer to complement these guys toward sustained winning. Keep what you got and find ways to improve the team around that core strength. In a couple of years you could possibly add another starter from our farm club, namely Sedlock and with a little luck, Harvey. The future could be blindingly bright. Stay the course and patience can sometimes pay huge dividends.

I have yet to chime in on the "trade Britton" thread but I will state my case here that I agree with the premise.

We were in a similar situation a few years back with Jim Johnson although he was probably a baseball order of magnitude worse than ZB. Some posters have suggested that ZB has been a 4 or 5 win difference this year, and that has been huge for us in our bubble situation. But there is no guarantee that ZB can repeat this year. There is a ton of risk in paying your closer 10M this year and maybe 12 to 15m the following year when there is a decent probability that he could lose a couple of MPH off of his sinker, have an arm issue, or just lose his mojo. Many shutdown relievers in the past have had a drastic drop off from one year to the next.

Put me in the camp of those that would rather sell high, assuming the offer is good, and go with the next best alternative. I distinctly remember having to give JJ away to the A's to offload his 10m. I don't want to be in a similar situation down the road and look back at what could have been.

One more observation about the rotation. As bad as Miley has been, he has given us the ability to go to effectively a 6-man rotation and everyone has been better as a result. It would be tough to pull off for a full season without expanded rosters, but I wonder if Buck and Dan consider something like this next year. If KG, Tillman, etc can consistently go 7 innings, we could potentially afford to go short in the bullpen.

Miley will start against Tampa. Too embarrassing to Dan and the FO to pull him out of the rotation in a pennant race - especially against a lightweight offense he's got good career numbers. If it was the Sox or some team he's been brutal against in his career - there'd be a way for Buck to spin it. But his career numbers are good vs TB - and they suck.

Since August 19th, the Rays are 12-14. That is against the following teams:

Texas (2-1)

Boston (3-4)

Houston (1-2)

Toronto (4-2)

Baltimore (1-2)

New York (1-3)

That is hardly sucking against some of the hottest teams in baseball (sans the collapsing Blue Jays) and if you have been following their games you would know that they are not an easy "W".